Hi Sasha. I have only made such bets with Greg Colbourn and David Manheim. I have proposed similar bets many times. People with short timelines usually say they had better take a loan from a bank, which is fair. They do not expect to pay it fully due to a global catastrophe, or expect to pay part of it super easily due to extreme abundance. On the other hand, I suspect many of them have not taken loans up to the point of marginal borrowed money being neutral (instead of beneficial) under their views about AI.
I remain open to bets against short AI timelines, or what they supposedly imply, up to 10 k$.
Have you had any takers (who you can publicly name) other than Greg?
Hi Sasha. I have only made such bets with Greg Colbourn and David Manheim. I have proposed similar bets many times. People with short timelines usually say they had better take a loan from a bank, which is fair. They do not expect to pay it fully due to a global catastrophe, or expect to pay part of it super easily due to extreme abundance. On the other hand, I suspect many of them have not taken loans up to the point of marginal borrowed money being neutral (instead of beneficial) under their views about AI.