To clarify, is the main source of your skepticism that you don’t think TAI has a particularly high chance of leading to an existential catastrophe, or are you also not sure we get TAI soon enough to matter?
Also, I think your post is asking for arguments which directly compare risks. Is there a reason you’d find this particularly compelling? If I tell you a coin has 2 sides, and Alice tells you a die has 6, it feels like you have enough information to work out that getting tails is more likely than rolling a 1, even if I’ve never met Alice.
The precipice is probably the best place to start if you do want direct comparisons though
My main source of skepticism is that I am not sure whether we’ll get to TAI this century. While there are currently some organizations dedicated to building AGI (OpenAI, DeepMind), it could be that comprehensive AI services obviate the economic incentive to develop AGI rather than a collection of narrow AIs (especially given that AGI poses known risks that narrow AIs don’t).
If I tell you a coin has 2 sides, and Alice tells you a die has 6, it feels like you have enough information to work out that getting tails is more likely than rolling a 1
Yes, that is an argument that directly compares probabilities. Fair coins and fair 6-sided dice are straightforward mathematical objects, whereas x-risk and expected value estimates for x-risk reduction depend on sketchy numerical assumptions.
To clarify, is the main source of your skepticism that you don’t think TAI has a particularly high chance of leading to an existential catastrophe, or are you also not sure we get TAI soon enough to matter?
Also, I think your post is asking for arguments which directly compare risks. Is there a reason you’d find this particularly compelling? If I tell you a coin has 2 sides, and Alice tells you a die has 6, it feels like you have enough information to work out that getting tails is more likely than rolling a 1, even if I’ve never met Alice.
The precipice is probably the best place to start if you do want direct comparisons though
My main source of skepticism is that I am not sure whether we’ll get to TAI this century. While there are currently some organizations dedicated to building AGI (OpenAI, DeepMind), it could be that comprehensive AI services obviate the economic incentive to develop AGI rather than a collection of narrow AIs (especially given that AGI poses known risks that narrow AIs don’t).
Yes, that is an argument that directly compares probabilities. Fair coins and fair 6-sided dice are straightforward mathematical objects, whereas x-risk and expected value estimates for x-risk reduction depend on sketchy numerical assumptions.
Sorry for my extremely delayed response, btw!