We needn’t take on reputational risk unnecessarily, but if it is possible for EAs to coordinate to stop a Cultural Revolution, that would seem to be a Cause X candidate. Toby Ord describes a great-power war as an existential risk factor, as it would hurt our odds on: AI, nuclear war, and climate change, all at once. I think losing free expression would also qualify as an existential risk factor.
I’m extremely skeptical of EAs’ ability to coordinate to stop a Cultural Revolution. “Politics is the mind killer.” Better to treat it like the weather and focus on the things that actually matter and we have a chance of affecting, and that our movement has a comparative advantage in (figuring out things about physical reality and plugging in holes in places left dangerously unguarded).
It also doesn’t seem that important in the grand scheme of things; relative to the much more direct existential risks.
I am also highly uncertain of EAs’ ability to intervene in cultural change, but I do want us to take a hard look at it and discuss it. It may be a cause that is tractable early on, but hopeless if ignored.
You may not think Hsu’s case “actually matters”, but how many turns of the wheel is it before it is someone else?
Peter Singer has taken enough controversial stances to be “cancelled” from any direction. I want the next Singer(s) to still feel free to try to figure out what really matters, and what we should do.
I’m glad Singer has survived through stuff (and indeed, arguably his willingness to say true&controversial things is part of his appeal). For what it’s worth, there’s historical precedent for selective self-censorship of true views from our predecessors, cf Bentham’s unpublished essay on homosexuality:
discussed the essay in the light of 18th-century legal opinion and quoted Bentham’s manuscript notes that reveal his anxieties about expressing his views
The decline of Mohism seems like a good cautionary tale of a movement that tries to both a) get political and b) not be aware of political considerations.
I agree that if it were possible to stop it, we should, but the EA movement is only a few thousand people. Even if we devoted all our resources to this issue, I doubt EA has enough influence over broad political trends to make much difference.
We needn’t take on reputational risk unnecessarily, but if it is possible for EAs to coordinate to stop a Cultural Revolution, that would seem to be a Cause X candidate. Toby Ord describes a great-power war as an existential risk factor, as it would hurt our odds on: AI, nuclear war, and climate change, all at once. I think losing free expression would also qualify as an existential risk factor.
I’m extremely skeptical of EAs’ ability to coordinate to stop a Cultural Revolution. “Politics is the mind killer.” Better to treat it like the weather and focus on the things that actually matter and we have a chance of affecting, and that our movement has a comparative advantage in (figuring out things about physical reality and plugging in holes in places left dangerously unguarded).
It also doesn’t seem that important in the grand scheme of things; relative to the much more direct existential risks.
I am also highly uncertain of EAs’ ability to intervene in cultural change, but I do want us to take a hard look at it and discuss it. It may be a cause that is tractable early on, but hopeless if ignored.
You may not think Hsu’s case “actually matters”, but how many turns of the wheel is it before it is someone else?
Peter Singer has taken enough controversial stances to be “cancelled” from any direction. I want the next Singer(s) to still feel free to try to figure out what really matters, and what we should do.
This post describes related concerns, and helpfully links to previous discussions in Appendix 1.
I’m glad Singer has survived through stuff (and indeed, arguably his willingness to say true&controversial things is part of his appeal). For what it’s worth, there’s historical precedent for selective self-censorship of true views from our predecessors, cf Bentham’s unpublished essay on homosexuality:
The decline of Mohism seems like a good cautionary tale of a movement that tries to both a) get political and b) not be aware of political considerations.
I agree that if it were possible to stop it, we should, but the EA movement is only a few thousand people. Even if we devoted all our resources to this issue, I doubt EA has enough influence over broad political trends to make much difference.