I won’t address all of your points right now, but I will say that I hadn’t considered that “R&D is compensating for natural resources becoming harder to extract over time”, which would increase the returns somewhat. However, my sense is that raw resource extraction is a small % of GDP, so I don’t think this effect would be large.
Apologies for forming a separate thread—I was just informed that the author posted here, as well.
Here is the link, if you are curious: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xEyzE2DGSiMQGjqmz/a-response-to-openphil-s-r-and-d-model
Thanks for this!
I won’t address all of your points right now, but I will say that I hadn’t considered that “R&D is compensating for natural resources becoming harder to extract over time”, which would increase the returns somewhat. However, my sense is that raw resource extraction is a small % of GDP, so I don’t think this effect would be large.