Thanks, those are some very good points. I especially liked your point on having baked in the recent government reaction already, something I had not considered. I have been very superficially thinking about whether prediction markets could be used to get some idea of risk reduction impacts. E.g. if a new organization is announced doing new work, or such organizations achieve a surprising milestone in x risk reduction, I was thinking perhaps one could use prediction markets to estimate the amount of risk reduction. I have not had time to investigate this in more detail and might have missed others having already written about this.
Thanks, those are some very good points. I especially liked your point on having baked in the recent government reaction already, something I had not considered. I have been very superficially thinking about whether prediction markets could be used to get some idea of risk reduction impacts. E.g. if a new organization is announced doing new work, or such organizations achieve a surprising milestone in x risk reduction, I was thinking perhaps one could use prediction markets to estimate the amount of risk reduction. I have not had time to investigate this in more detail and might have missed others having already written about this.