Intuitively, I think there should be a way to take advantage of the fact that the outcomes are heavily structured. You have predictions on the same questions and they have a binary outcome.
OTOH, if in 20% of cases the worse forecaster is better on average, that suggests that there is just a hard bound on how much we can get.
Afraid I don’t have good ideas here.
Intuitively, I think there should be a way to take advantage of the fact that the outcomes are heavily structured. You have predictions on the same questions and they have a binary outcome.
OTOH, if in 20% of cases the worse forecaster is better on average, that suggests that there is just a hard bound on how much we can get.