Thanks for this Stephen. We wrote the TLDR at the last minute and switched out the 2070 for this one. Will adjust the draft accordingly to reflect this. However I gotta say the fact that most of the China war metaculus markets barely moved in the leadup to the Pelosi visit did make me downweight my confidence that the predictions in these markets mean much.
Thanks for this Stephen. We wrote the TLDR at the last minute and switched out the 2070 for this one. Will adjust the draft accordingly to reflect this. However I gotta say the fact that most of the China war metaculus markets barely moved in the leadup to the Pelosi visit did make me downweight my confidence that the predictions in these markets mean much.
Metaculus performed decently well anticipating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, so I do think they can provide information about conflicts