If possible, could you expand on this bit from idea 2? “Note that I think existing prediction and evaluation setups are currently not ready to do this well. Among others, we need a) better engineering setups to do forecasting at scale, and b) better ontologies for cleaner evaluations at scale”
In particular, what do you see as the scale-limiting characteristics of platforms like Metaculus? Lack of incentives, or something else?
And what do you mean by “better ontologies for cleaner evaluations”? (E.g. describing an existing ontology and its limitations would be helpful)
Exciting stuff, thanks for the post!
If possible, could you expand on this bit from idea 2? “Note that I think existing prediction and evaluation setups are currently not ready to do this well. Among others, we need a) better engineering setups to do forecasting at scale, and b) better ontologies for cleaner evaluations at scale”
In particular, what do you see as the scale-limiting characteristics of platforms like Metaculus? Lack of incentives, or something else?
And what do you mean by “better ontologies for cleaner evaluations”? (E.g. describing an existing ontology and its limitations would be helpful)
Thanks!