Upvoted your post because you made some good points, but I think your analogy between human cloning and AI training is totally wrong.
Take for example, human reproductive cloning. This is so morally abhorrent that it is not being practised anywhere in the world. There is no black market in need of a global police state to shut it down. AGI research could become equally uncool once the danger, and loss of sovereignty, it represents is sufficiently well appreciated.
There is no black market in human cloning, and no police state trying to stop it, because no one benefits very much from cloning. Cloning is just not that useful. Whereas if we stop corporate AI development for 40 years but computer hardware keeps improving, anyone can get rich by training an AGI on their gaming laptop. It would be like trying to confiscate all the drug imports in a world where everyone with a cell phone is a drug addict.
Thanks. I also address the “get rich” point though! People can’t get rich from it AGI because they lose control of it (/the world ends) before they get rich. AGI is not that useful either, because it’s uncontrollable and has negative externalities that will come back and swamp any hoped for benefits, even for the producer (i.e. x-risk).
Assumptions of wealth generation, economic abundance and public benefit from AGI are ungrounded without proof that they are even possible—and they aren’t (yet), given a lack of scalable-to-ASI solutions to alignment, misuse, and coordination. A stop isn’t taking away the ladder to heaven, for such a ladder does not exist, even in theory, as things stand.
Upvoted your post because you made some good points, but I think your analogy between human cloning and AI training is totally wrong.
There is no black market in human cloning, and no police state trying to stop it, because no one benefits very much from cloning. Cloning is just not that useful. Whereas if we stop corporate AI development for 40 years but computer hardware keeps improving, anyone can get rich by training an AGI on their gaming laptop. It would be like trying to confiscate all the drug imports in a world where everyone with a cell phone is a drug addict.
Thanks. I also address the “get rich” point though! People can’t get rich from it AGI because they lose control of it (/the world ends) before they get rich. AGI is not that useful either, because it’s uncontrollable and has negative externalities that will come back and swamp any hoped for benefits, even for the producer (i.e. x-risk).