I still don’t understand where the 95% for non-doom is coming from. I think it’s useful to look at actual mechanisms for why people think this (and so far I’ve found them lacking). The qualifications of the “professional forecasters” in the XPT survey are in doubt (and again, it was pre-GPT-4).
I still don’t understand where the 95% for non-doom is coming from. I think it’s useful to look at actual mechanisms for why people think this (and so far I’ve found them lacking). The qualifications of the “professional forecasters” in the XPT survey are in doubt (and again, it was pre-GPT-4).