I feel like this is a case of death by epistemic modesty, especially when it isn’t clear how these low p(doom) estimates are arrived at in a technical sense (and a lot seems to me like a kind of “respectability heuristic” cascade). We didn’t do very well with Covid as a society in the UK (and many other countries), following this kind of thinking.
I feel like this is a case of death by epistemic modesty, especially when it isn’t clear how these low p(doom) estimates are arrived at in a technical sense (and a lot seems to me like a kind of “respectability heuristic” cascade). We didn’t do very well with Covid as a society in the UK (and many other countries), following this kind of thinking.