As much as I may appreciate a good wager, I would feel remiss not to ask if you could get a better result for amount of home equity at risk by getting a HELOC and having a bank be the counterparty? Maybe not at lower dollar amounts due to fixed costs/fees, but likely so nearer the $250K point—especially with the expectation that interest rates will go down later in the year.
I don’t have a stable income so I can’t get bank loans (I have tried to get a mortgage for the property before and failed—they don’t care if you have millions in assets, all they care about is your income[1], and I just have a relatively small, irregular rental income (Airbnb). But I can get crypto-backed smart contract loans, and do have one out already on Aave, which I could extend.).
Also, the signalling value of the wager is pretty important too imo. I want people to put their money where their mouth is if they are so sure that AI x-risk isn’t a near term problem. And I want to put my money where my mouth is too, to show how serious I am about this.
I think this is probably because they don’t want to go through the hassle of actually having to repossess your house, so if this seems at all likely they won’t bother with the loan in the first place.
As much as I may appreciate a good wager, I would feel remiss not to ask if you could get a better result for amount of home equity at risk by getting a HELOC and having a bank be the counterparty? Maybe not at lower dollar amounts due to fixed costs/fees, but likely so nearer the $250K point—especially with the expectation that interest rates will go down later in the year.
I don’t have a stable income so I can’t get bank loans (I have tried to get a mortgage for the property before and failed—they don’t care if you have millions in assets, all they care about is your income[1], and I just have a relatively small, irregular rental income (Airbnb). But I can get crypto-backed smart contract loans, and do have one out already on Aave, which I could extend.).
Also, the signalling value of the wager is pretty important too imo. I want people to put their money where their mouth is if they are so sure that AI x-risk isn’t a near term problem. And I want to put my money where my mouth is too, to show how serious I am about this.
I think this is probably because they don’t want to go through the hassle of actually having to repossess your house, so if this seems at all likely they won’t bother with the loan in the first place.