“I think AGI is 0-5 years away” != “I am certain AGI will happen in within five years.” I think it is best read as implying somewhere between 51 and 100% confidence, at least standing alone. Depending on where it is set, you probably should offer another ~12-18 months.
“I think AGI is 0-5 years away” != “I am certain AGI will happen in within five years.” I think it is best read as implying somewhere between 51 and 100% confidence, at least standing alone. Depending on where it is set, you probably should offer another ~12-18 months.
Nice point, Jason! I have adjusted the numbers above to account for that. I have also replaced “$” by “2023-$” to account for inflation.