I think “5%” is just very badly defined. If I just go with the most intuitive definition to me, then 32.5 good video explainers would probably improve the AI x-risk relevant competence of the US government by more than 5% (which currently is very close to 0, and 5% of a very small number is easy to achieve).
But like, any level of clarification would probably wildly swing whatever estimates I give you. Disagreement on this question seems like it will inevitably just lead to arguing over definitions.
“Improve US AI policy 5 percentage points” was defined as
Instead of buying think tanks, this option lets you improve AI policy directly. The distribution of possible US AI policies will go from being centered on the 50th-percentile-good outcome to being centered on the 55th-percentile-good outcome, as per your personal definition of good outcomes. The variance will stay the same.
Hmm, yeah, that is better-defined. I don’t have a huge amount of variance within those percentiles, so I think I would probably take the 32.5 video explainers, but I really haven’t thought much about it.
I think “5%” is just very badly defined. If I just go with the most intuitive definition to me, then 32.5 good video explainers would probably improve the AI x-risk relevant competence of the US government by more than 5% (which currently is very close to 0, and 5% of a very small number is easy to achieve).
But like, any level of clarification would probably wildly swing whatever estimates I give you. Disagreement on this question seems like it will inevitably just lead to arguing over definitions.
“Improve US AI policy 5 percentage points” was defined as
(This is still poorly defined.)
Hmm, yeah, that is better-defined. I don’t have a huge amount of variance within those percentiles, so I think I would probably take the 32.5 video explainers, but I really haven’t thought much about it.