Some interesting implications about respondents’ median beliefs:
It takes 93 typical policy people, or 4 and 1⁄3 extraordinary policy people, to improve US policy by 5 percentage points
Mass protests improve US policy by 0.06%
US policy matters 3.25x as much as individual BigCos’ internal policies
An academic researcher is worth 5x as much as a typical technical researcher
An extraordinary technical researcher is worth 1 and 2⁄3 times as much as an entire new org
(A couple of these sound super wrong to me but I won’t say which ones)
Actually, something I am confused about is whether the AI academics are per person*year as the technical researchers in various fields.
Some interesting implications about respondents’ median beliefs:
It takes 93 typical policy people, or 4 and 1⁄3 extraordinary policy people, to improve US policy by 5 percentage points
Mass protests improve US policy by 0.06%
US policy matters 3.25x as much as individual BigCos’ internal policies
An academic researcher is worth 5x as much as a typical technical researcher
An extraordinary technical researcher is worth 1 and 2⁄3 times as much as an entire new org
(A couple of these sound super wrong to me but I won’t say which ones)
Actually, something I am confused about is whether the AI academics are per person*year as the technical researchers in various fields.