Yeah, I disagree with this on my inside view—I think “come up with your own guess of how bad and how likely future pandemics could be, with the input of others’ arguments” is a really useful exercise, and seems more useful to me than having a good probability estimate of how likely it is. I know that a lot of people find the latter more helpful though, and I can see some plausible arguments for it, so all things considered, I still think there’s some merit to that.
Yeah, I disagree with this on my inside view—I think “come up with your own guess of how bad and how likely future pandemics could be, with the input of others’ arguments” is a really useful exercise, and seems more useful to me than having a good probability estimate of how likely it is. I know that a lot of people find the latter more helpful though, and I can see some plausible arguments for it, so all things considered, I still think there’s some merit to that.