Advanced AI is a general purpose technology, so I expect it to be widely distributed across society. I would think about it as electricity or the internet. Relatedly, I expect most AI value will come from broad automation, not from research and development (R&D). I agree with the view Ege Erdil describes here.
A 2024 survey of AI researchers put a 50% chance of AGI by 2047, but this is 13 years earlier than predicted in the 2023 version of the survey.
2047 is the median for all tasks being automated, but the median for all occupations being automated was much further away. Both scenarios should be equivalent, so I think it makes sense to combine the predictions for both of them. This results in the median expert having a median date of full automation of 2073.
Thanks for the post, Max.
Advanced AI is a general purpose technology, so I expect it to be widely distributed across society. I would think about it as electricity or the internet. Relatedly, I expect most AI value will come from broad automation, not from research and development (R&D). I agree with the view Ege Erdil describes here.
2047 is the median for all tasks being automated, but the median for all occupations being automated was much further away. Both scenarios should be equivalent, so I think it makes sense to combine the predictions for both of them. This results in the median expert having a median date of full automation of 2073.