Executive summary: Manifold Markets, a prediction market website, has several flaws that hinder its ability to produce accurate predictions and effectively improve the world, despite its potential for charitable donations.
Key points:
Manifold’s predictive power is worse than simply averaging predictions and has a systematic bias towards predicting events that don’t happen.
The platform’s design allows users to gain virtual currency (mana) through means other than making accurate predictions, undermining the intended accumulation of wealth based on predictive prowess.
The site’s focus on engagement and attracting paying users may conflict with the goal of providing accurate predictions for potential clients.
Manifold’s adherence to neoliberal ideology and market-trusting perspectives may create blind spots in addressing the platform’s shortcomings.
The controversial Manifest24 event and the platforming of bigots can harm diversity, reduce insight, and deter critiques of the platform’s structural issues.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Manifold Markets, a prediction market website, has several flaws that hinder its ability to produce accurate predictions and effectively improve the world, despite its potential for charitable donations.
Key points:
Manifold’s predictive power is worse than simply averaging predictions and has a systematic bias towards predicting events that don’t happen.
The platform’s design allows users to gain virtual currency (mana) through means other than making accurate predictions, undermining the intended accumulation of wealth based on predictive prowess.
The site’s focus on engagement and attracting paying users may conflict with the goal of providing accurate predictions for potential clients.
Manifold’s adherence to neoliberal ideology and market-trusting perspectives may create blind spots in addressing the platform’s shortcomings.
The controversial Manifest24 event and the platforming of bigots can harm diversity, reduce insight, and deter critiques of the platform’s structural issues.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.