I wouldn’t expect super-high correlation between any specific business owner’s personal ideology and good business sense for their business.
It’s the other way around. Prediction markets that anyone can create are good, but it’s such crazy idea that one has to be pretty libertarian to be able to even think of the idea in the first place
I don’t see the idea of “prediction markets that anyone can create” as particularly crazy or even novel. Many people were frustrated with regulatory barriers preventing prediction markets in the US before Manifold came along; my impression is that Manifold’s innovation is “if we use play money rather than real money we avoid a lot of the regulation and some of the incentive for abuse, but hopefully still motivate people to participate”. Plus, perhaps, innovation in market structure that attempts to simplify the market interface and/or compensate for the lack of liquidity. (And a bunch of product work actually getting the details right.)
I realise you actually work for Manifold so maybe you have access to better information than me, but this is what it seems like to me from the outside.
Ah, yes, then we have succeeded in normalizing the idea that you should be able to create a market, trade in it, and then resolve it according to your own judgment.
When we were getting started literally everyone we told this to, including YC partners, thought it was crazy.
Only Scott Alexander saw the value in users creating and resolving their own markets. He awarded us the ACX grant, shared the link to our prototype with his readers, and the rest is history!
you’re right, and there were anyone-created prediction markets before Manifold, like Augur. I misspoke. the real new-unintuitive thing was markets anyone could create and resolve themselves rather than deferring to a central committee or court system. I think this level of self-sovereignty is genuinely hard to think of. It’s not enough to be a crypto fan who likes cypherpunk vibes; one has to be the kind of person who thinks about free banking or who gets the antifragile advantages that street merchants on rugs have over shopping malls.
although it’s quite possible that Manifold got popular more because the UX was better than other prediction markets or because a lot of rationalists to joined at the same time which let the social aspect take off
It’s the other way around. Prediction markets that anyone can create are good, but it’s such crazy idea that one has to be pretty libertarian to be able to even think of the idea in the first place
I don’t see the idea of “prediction markets that anyone can create” as particularly crazy or even novel. Many people were frustrated with regulatory barriers preventing prediction markets in the US before Manifold came along; my impression is that Manifold’s innovation is “if we use play money rather than real money we avoid a lot of the regulation and some of the incentive for abuse, but hopefully still motivate people to participate”. Plus, perhaps, innovation in market structure that attempts to simplify the market interface and/or compensate for the lack of liquidity. (And a bunch of product work actually getting the details right.)
I realise you actually work for Manifold so maybe you have access to better information than me, but this is what it seems like to me from the outside.
Ah, yes, then we have succeeded in normalizing the idea that you should be able to create a market, trade in it, and then resolve it according to your own judgment.
When we were getting started literally everyone we told this to, including YC partners, thought it was crazy.
Only Scott Alexander saw the value in users creating and resolving their own markets. He awarded us the ACX grant, shared the link to our prototype with his readers, and the rest is history!
Yeah, the idea that self-resolution and insider trading don’t require central regulation to manage does seem more like a novelty, that’s fair.
you’re right, and there were anyone-created prediction markets before Manifold, like Augur. I misspoke. the real new-unintuitive thing was markets anyone could create and resolve themselves rather than deferring to a central committee or court system. I think this level of self-sovereignty is genuinely hard to think of. It’s not enough to be a crypto fan who likes cypherpunk vibes; one has to be the kind of person who thinks about free banking or who gets the antifragile advantages that street merchants on rugs have over shopping malls.
although it’s quite possible that Manifold got popular more because the UX was better than other prediction markets or because a lot of rationalists to joined at the same time which let the social aspect take off