I disagree with this. I think the obvious source of money for a prediction platform like Manifold is from people who want to get accurate information about a question, who then fund subsidies which Manifold gets a cut off. That’s ultimately where the value proposition of the platform comes from, and so where it makes sense to extract the money.
I read your comment as “have people pay for finding out information via subsidies for markets” being your “alternative” model, rather than being the “take a cut of the trading profits/volume/revenue” model. Anyway, I mentioned earlier why I don’t think being “controversial” (~ too toxic for the reputational needs of many businesses with serious money and information needs) fits in well with that business model. Few would want to be named in this sentence in the Guardian in 2028: “The always-controversial Manifest conference was put on by Manifold, a prediction market with a similarly loose moderation norms whose major customers include . . . .”
I think it’s a minor issue that is unlikely to drive anyway who actually has a “hair-on-fire” problem of the type that a prediction market might solve. I am confident anyone with experience building internet platforms like this would consider this a very irrelevant thing to worry about at the business stage where Manifold is at.
I disagree with this. I think the obvious source of money for a prediction platform like Manifold is from people who want to get accurate information about a question, who then fund subsidies which Manifold gets a cut off. That’s ultimately where the value proposition of the platform comes from, and so where it makes sense to extract the money.
I read your comment as “have people pay for finding out information via subsidies for markets” being your “alternative” model, rather than being the “take a cut of the trading profits/volume/revenue” model. Anyway, I mentioned earlier why I don’t think being “controversial” (~ too toxic for the reputational needs of many businesses with serious money and information needs) fits in well with that business model. Few would want to be named in this sentence in the Guardian in 2028: “The always-controversial Manifest conference was put on by Manifold, a prediction market with a similarly loose moderation norms whose major customers include . . . .”
I think it’s a minor issue that is unlikely to drive anyway who actually has a “hair-on-fire” problem of the type that a prediction market might solve. I am confident anyone with experience building internet platforms like this would consider this a very irrelevant thing to worry about at the business stage where Manifold is at.