Its market is too illiquid and too expensive to trade to produce any good predictions. Its mechanics seem more like a social media site for amusement than any serious market.
I think these prediction markets need more short-term issues to stay relevant than the current situation where there are many markets but not enough liquidity and high transaction costs.
It is very difficult to create an efficient market in any sense. Many futures exchanges have many contracts with zero volume. The actual way of doing things on this site is even worse than the neoliberals: at least the neoliberals know that they should do their best to use the government to enforce and protect the market, rather than assuming that the free market will work on its own. Maybe they need to study some finance papers to learn how to set up effective exchanges.
Its market is too illiquid and too expensive to trade to produce any good predictions. Its mechanics seem more like a social media site for amusement than any serious market.
I think these prediction markets need more short-term issues to stay relevant than the current situation where there are many markets but not enough liquidity and high transaction costs.
It is very difficult to create an efficient market in any sense. Many futures exchanges have many contracts with zero volume. The actual way of doing things on this site is even worse than the neoliberals: at least the neoliberals know that they should do their best to use the government to enforce and protect the market, rather than assuming that the free market will work on its own. Maybe they need to study some finance papers to learn how to set up effective exchanges.