Take technical AI safety research as an example. I’d have trouble directly estimating “How much good would we do by spending $1000 in this area”, or sanity checking the result. I’d also have trouble with “What % of this problem would we solve by spending another $100?”
Hmmm. I don’t really see how this is any harder, or different from, your proposed method, which is to figure out how much of the problem would be solved by increasing spend by 10%. In both cases you’ve got to do something like working out how much money it would take to ‘solve’ AI safety. Then you play with that number.
Hmmm. I don’t really see how this is any harder, or different from, your proposed method, which is to figure out how much of the problem would be solved by increasing spend by 10%. In both cases you’ve got to do something like working out how much money it would take to ‘solve’ AI safety. Then you play with that number.