Executive summary: ODNI should develop a next-generation crowd forecasting program to enhance intelligence analysis and interagency coordination by partnering FFRDCs with executive branch agencies, with a focus on generating policy-relevant forecasting questions and integrating results into decision-making processes.
Key points:
1. Despite proven benefits from IARPA’s previous crowd forecasting research, implementation has been hindered by internal politics and integration challenges.
2. The proposed program should balance academic rigor with policy relevance, moving beyond the rapid-fire, easily-resolvable questions of previous tournaments.
3. Success requires embedding end users (NSC, DoD, etc.) in question generation to ensure forecasts are actionable and relevant to decision-makers.
4. Implementation recommendations include developing visualization dashboards, establishing formal review processes, and using forecasts as coordination tools between agencies.
5. The program should be positioned as a complement to traditional intelligence analysis, not a replacement, to overcome institutional resistance.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: ODNI should develop a next-generation crowd forecasting program to enhance intelligence analysis and interagency coordination by partnering FFRDCs with executive branch agencies, with a focus on generating policy-relevant forecasting questions and integrating results into decision-making processes.
Key points:
1. Despite proven benefits from IARPA’s previous crowd forecasting research, implementation has been hindered by internal politics and integration challenges.
2. The proposed program should balance academic rigor with policy relevance, moving beyond the rapid-fire, easily-resolvable questions of previous tournaments.
3. Success requires embedding end users (NSC, DoD, etc.) in question generation to ensure forecasts are actionable and relevant to decision-makers.
4. Implementation recommendations include developing visualization dashboards, establishing formal review processes, and using forecasts as coordination tools between agencies.
5. The program should be positioned as a complement to traditional intelligence analysis, not a replacement, to overcome institutional resistance.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.