Probability that this is useful =
Prob(that you can domesticate these zebras) *
Prob(that a disaster happens that knocks out humanity’s ability to make mechanised vehicles while this set of zebras exists) *
Prob(that that disaster doesn’t also kill these zebras) *
Prob(that the humans find and figure out how to use the zebras) *
Prob(that these zebras meaningfully increase industrial progress)
My way of looking at it is a little different. I’ve put comments in square brackets next to your points below.
Prob(that you can domesticate these zebras) [Agreed. I think this is a high probability.]
* Prob(that a disaster happens that knocks out humanity’s ability to make mechanised vehicles while this set of zebras exists) [Not quite. Perhaps we have mechanised vehicles but they are prohibitively expensive to run. Or we have other calls on our metal resources, e.g. they are needed to deal with some threat from space. Zebras are useful when mechanised transport is not available for any reason. ]
* Prob(that that disaster doesn’t also kill these zebras) [I agree the zebras have to survive, but if we are thinking of some loss of industrial capacity then there is little reason to think that zebras would be at risk. Or we can imagine some catastrophe that harms life in the heavily industrialised areas of the world in which horses mostly live: having domesticated zebras would then be big a bonus for humanity. Or imagine a disease that kills horses: again, domesticated zebras would be a bonus.]
* Prob(that the humans find and figure out how to use the zebras) [I am envisaging that people live with these zebras in Africa in the same way they live with horses in Europe and North America. The knowledge of how to tame, train, ride, feed and breed horses is pretty widespread. We would have the same for zebras.]
* Prob(that these zebras meaningfully increase industrial progress). [No. The point is that they would be used for transport (and other horse use-cases) in the same way that horses were prior to industrialisation. That is a good in itself irrespective of whether it aids industrial progress. Of course transport aids trade and the exchange of ideas so it is likely to help, but I don’t put much weight on that.]
The essential point is simply that humankind has found value in having domesticated horses for thousands of years, and the potential of bringing that value to sub-Saharan Africa can be bought at modest cost.
Probability that this is useful = Prob(that you can domesticate these zebras) * Prob(that a disaster happens that knocks out humanity’s ability to make mechanised vehicles while this set of zebras exists) * Prob(that that disaster doesn’t also kill these zebras) * Prob(that the humans find and figure out how to use the zebras) * Prob(that these zebras meaningfully increase industrial progress)
Upvote for creativity
Thank you for your comment.
My way of looking at it is a little different. I’ve put comments in square brackets next to your points below.
Prob(that you can domesticate these zebras) [Agreed. I think this is a high probability.]
* Prob(that a disaster happens that knocks out humanity’s ability to make mechanised vehicles while this set of zebras exists) [Not quite. Perhaps we have mechanised vehicles but they are prohibitively expensive to run. Or we have other calls on our metal resources, e.g. they are needed to deal with some threat from space. Zebras are useful when mechanised transport is not available for any reason. ]
* Prob(that that disaster doesn’t also kill these zebras) [I agree the zebras have to survive, but if we are thinking of some loss of industrial capacity then there is little reason to think that zebras would be at risk. Or we can imagine some catastrophe that harms life in the heavily industrialised areas of the world in which horses mostly live: having domesticated zebras would then be big a bonus for humanity. Or imagine a disease that kills horses: again, domesticated zebras would be a bonus.]
* Prob(that the humans find and figure out how to use the zebras) [I am envisaging that people live with these zebras in Africa in the same way they live with horses in Europe and North America. The knowledge of how to tame, train, ride, feed and breed horses is pretty widespread. We would have the same for zebras.]
* Prob(that these zebras meaningfully increase industrial progress). [No. The point is that they would be used for transport (and other horse use-cases) in the same way that horses were prior to industrialisation. That is a good in itself irrespective of whether it aids industrial progress. Of course transport aids trade and the exchange of ideas so it is likely to help, but I don’t put much weight on that.]
The essential point is simply that humankind has found value in having domesticated horses for thousands of years, and the potential of bringing that value to sub-Saharan Africa can be bought at modest cost.