If you characterise it as “PR games,” then you get to say that current behaviour is (many have claimed) “one of the primary reasons why we got into this mess in the first place.”
However, if you characterise it as “risk-aversion and guardedness,” then you should probably say that current behaviour is a healthy update awayfrom the risky, move-fast-and-break-things behaviour that is (many have claimed) one of the primary reasons why we got into this mess in the first place?
I agree that there is a genuine tension here, and that I should argue more coherently that the problem was not insufficient risk-aversion and guardedness (indeed, in the PR sphere SBF was also highly risk-averse and guarded), and am working on a post trying to make that argument (In short, I think risk-aversion in PR domains is much more harmful than in other domains, since it makes collective sense-making much harder, and indeed I think a common pattern of behavior is “reckless in your actions, but highly concerned about your reputation”).
And yes I don’t think it’s urgent. I don’t quite understand why so many people are demanding answers now. I can understand grantees facing urgent financial/career decisions wanting info relating to that now, but not people who just want to know details of what happened, what people think about that, how they’re planning to change things etc.
To be clear, I do not support people rushing to conclusions about how EA should change, and what kind of huge institutional changes we should make. I do believe a number of related things:
I do think there is urgency in people sharing enough information that other people can orient to the situation and can start doing their own sense-making and aggregating the data in their head.
I also separately think that right now will be the time when most people’s attention is already hijacked by this whole situation, and it’s better to share info and takes now, and I don’t think there will be a natural Schelling-time later on where that conversation can happen in a way that won’t cost much more attention in the long run.
And third, I also think that now is a good time for people to register predictions and stick their neck out, now that we have confirmation that this is a huge deal, but do not yet have all the info on what happened. I think this will later on make discussion easier because we will be less blinded by hindsight bias.
And finally, fourth, I also think that there are just a good number of people who have to make pretty crucial decisions soon because they were relying on FTX funding, and I do think the absence of information makes that topic harder to navigate. I think the people needing to make decisions here is more than just FTX grantees, since I think almost everyone working in EA, or being interested in working in EA, has plans whose details are dependent on the future funding situation
with the exception of interviews with journalists, although I don’t quite see why that scenario gets special treatment.
I do think interviews with journalists are uniquely bad at communicating with the public. Usually you won’t even have access to the full transcript, and journalists are very happy to quote you out of context.
If you write yourself online, usually the journalist will at least link back to the full context, or people can find the full context, and while this doesn’t help with the lowest-context readers, it does genuinely help with people who are trying to understand what is going on, if you can just link a confused reader to the thread with the full context and have them see for themselves that your quote was out-of-context.
I agree that there is a genuine tension here, and that I should argue more coherently that the problem was not insufficient risk-aversion and guardedness (indeed, in the PR sphere SBF was also highly risk-averse and guarded), and am working on a post trying to make that argument (In short, I think risk-aversion in PR domains is much more harmful than in other domains, since it makes collective sense-making much harder, and indeed I think a common pattern of behavior is “reckless in your actions, but highly concerned about your reputation”).
To be clear, I do not support people rushing to conclusions about how EA should change, and what kind of huge institutional changes we should make. I do believe a number of related things:
I do think there is urgency in people sharing enough information that other people can orient to the situation and can start doing their own sense-making and aggregating the data in their head.
I also separately think that right now will be the time when most people’s attention is already hijacked by this whole situation, and it’s better to share info and takes now, and I don’t think there will be a natural Schelling-time later on where that conversation can happen in a way that won’t cost much more attention in the long run.
And third, I also think that now is a good time for people to register predictions and stick their neck out, now that we have confirmation that this is a huge deal, but do not yet have all the info on what happened. I think this will later on make discussion easier because we will be less blinded by hindsight bias.
And finally, fourth, I also think that there are just a good number of people who have to make pretty crucial decisions soon because they were relying on FTX funding, and I do think the absence of information makes that topic harder to navigate. I think the people needing to make decisions here is more than just FTX grantees, since I think almost everyone working in EA, or being interested in working in EA, has plans whose details are dependent on the future funding situation
I do think interviews with journalists are uniquely bad at communicating with the public. Usually you won’t even have access to the full transcript, and journalists are very happy to quote you out of context.
If you write yourself online, usually the journalist will at least link back to the full context, or people can find the full context, and while this doesn’t help with the lowest-context readers, it does genuinely help with people who are trying to understand what is going on, if you can just link a confused reader to the thread with the full context and have them see for themselves that your quote was out-of-context.