Is knowledge of/aptitude with CTMC common among actuaries?
Yes, it’s required learning for actuaries, they may just need to brush up on their lecture notes.
Also, have you considered doing some more work to apply it to ER with expert support?
Absolutely. I think, before I embark on further work, I would really like to talk with cause prioritisers/grant-makers to confirm that they would have confidence in this kind of modelling, and to understand what kinds of outputs they would value.
Very much agree RE time-inhomogenous. Some people may see them as a bug (fair) but in many ways they are a feature. I’ve said in the post that CTMCs can help disagreeing X-Risk modellers understand the precise source of their disagreements (ie differing time-inhomogeneity assumptions).
Hi Peter,
Yes, it’s required learning for actuaries, they may just need to brush up on their lecture notes.
Absolutely. I think, before I embark on further work, I would really like to talk with cause prioritisers/grant-makers to confirm that they would have confidence in this kind of modelling, and to understand what kinds of outputs they would value.
Very much agree RE time-inhomogenous. Some people may see them as a bug (fair) but in many ways they are a feature. I’ve said in the post that CTMCs can help disagreeing X-Risk modellers understand the precise source of their disagreements (ie differing time-inhomogeneity assumptions).