Also, I tend to think the Plan A and Plan B framing can be relatively problematic, particularly when combined with SRM, as it could act to deter mitigation
Hi Gideon and thanks for the response. Interesting and important project you are working on… I will follow up 1:1.
Specifically on your response on framing efforts, I think any framing or initiating of contingency planning for the failure of mainstream efforts to avert catastrophe is going to be problematic and unpopular. However that does not mean that it should not be addresed and serious work started. Here’s my thoughts on this stream...
In simplistic terms, Plan A/ global mainstream efforts, such as CC mitigation, at least in presentation, try to save everyone and everything everywhere and thus do not explicitly or implicitly exclude anyone (leave no-one behind is actually a crosscutting theme in much multilateral programming). So they are simultaneously politically and morally acceptable and utterly non-feasible in the current geopolitical climate.
In harsh contrast, true global scale contingency planning efforts (which are not just another variant of Plan A or just episodic emergency response), have a starting point of inevitable massive future loss or recent actual loss. In all extreme scenarios I look at , most ecosystems, countries and governments will partialy to fully collapse or least be extremely stressed and population crashes (over time) are in the multi-billions. The very starting point of such planning is deeply unpopular, and always will be for those who fate is forecast..
On top of that, to be truly feasible and credible, contingency planning and preparatory measures need to respect the current and forecast scale of the challenges and the limits of the resources credibly available or forecast. This in turn inevitably and explicitly narrows the process down to saving only very specific things (such as knowledge and genetic material) and communities and capacities in specific places. It also need to take into account foresight timeframes: preparation need to start yesterday, but credible scenarios indicate an irregular and extended process of degradation and collapse, not doomsday tomorrow, or next year. 2030 − 2100+ appears to be the truly critical period.
In this context, most humans existing today will not be saved or helped by dark scenario contingency planning efforts, if those scenarios come to pass. They will have either died of old age beforehand , or not possible to save.
Our own likely fates and the nature of the work flow from this point of logic. From a personal level , we individually should assume that we will either not be able to, or simply not need to physically get onto this type of species and civilization lifeboat, even if we help build it. The lifeboats so to speak will be very small, probably located in another countries, not built for years to come and potentially not even designed to physically carry or shelter people.
This conclusion is actually helpful, because it shifts the moral landscape , narrative and planning objectives from survivalism to broader altruism.
In closing, I feel that true long term global-species level Plan B or similarly labelled and targeted efforts are never going to be universally popular, nor politically mainstream, nor large enough to divert and thereby starve mainstream efforts of funding, attention or hope. Most people simply do not think in these time frames and scales, nor care enough about the fate of future generations (that are not their direct descendants) to endorse diverting substantial resources to this cause.
It will only ever be a niche sector.
PS. All of this is my personal opinion and effort and not at all linked to my UN role.
Also, I tend to think the Plan A and Plan B framing can be relatively problematic, particularly when combined with SRM, as it could act to deter mitigation
Hi Gideon and thanks for the response. Interesting and important project you are working on… I will follow up 1:1.
Specifically on your response on framing efforts, I think any framing or initiating of contingency planning for the failure of mainstream efforts to avert catastrophe is going to be problematic and unpopular. However that does not mean that it should not be addresed and serious work started. Here’s my thoughts on this stream...
In simplistic terms, Plan A/ global mainstream efforts, such as CC mitigation, at least in presentation, try to save everyone and everything everywhere and thus do not explicitly or implicitly exclude anyone (leave no-one behind is actually a crosscutting theme in much multilateral programming). So they are simultaneously politically and morally acceptable and utterly non-feasible in the current geopolitical climate.
In harsh contrast, true global scale contingency planning efforts (which are not just another variant of Plan A or just episodic emergency response), have a starting point of inevitable massive future loss or recent actual loss. In all extreme scenarios I look at , most ecosystems, countries and governments will partialy to fully collapse or least be extremely stressed and population crashes (over time) are in the multi-billions. The very starting point of such planning is deeply unpopular, and always will be for those who fate is forecast..
On top of that, to be truly feasible and credible, contingency planning and preparatory measures need to respect the current and forecast scale of the challenges and the limits of the resources credibly available or forecast. This in turn inevitably and explicitly narrows the process down to saving only very specific things (such as knowledge and genetic material) and communities and capacities in specific places. It also need to take into account foresight timeframes: preparation need to start yesterday, but credible scenarios indicate an irregular and extended process of degradation and collapse, not doomsday tomorrow, or next year. 2030 − 2100+ appears to be the truly critical period.
In this context, most humans existing today will not be saved or helped by dark scenario contingency planning efforts, if those scenarios come to pass. They will have either died of old age beforehand , or not possible to save.
Our own likely fates and the nature of the work flow from this point of logic. From a personal level , we individually should assume that we will either not be able to, or simply not need to physically get onto this type of species and civilization lifeboat, even if we help build it. The lifeboats so to speak will be very small, probably located in another countries, not built for years to come and potentially not even designed to physically carry or shelter people.
This conclusion is actually helpful, because it shifts the moral landscape , narrative and planning objectives from survivalism to broader altruism.
In closing, I feel that true long term global-species level Plan B or similarly labelled and targeted efforts are never going to be universally popular, nor politically mainstream, nor large enough to divert and thereby starve mainstream efforts of funding, attention or hope. Most people simply do not think in these time frames and scales, nor care enough about the fate of future generations (that are not their direct descendants) to endorse diverting substantial resources to this cause.
It will only ever be a niche sector.
PS. All of this is my personal opinion and effort and not at all linked to my UN role.