Here is the original chart adjusted for GDP/c. Estonia, New Zealand, Israel, and UK have more EAs than expected, the US has less. What might predict this difference?
How about the ratio of community age (or exp(community age)) to national population? See this comment
Instead of trying to identify a founding date for every country’s EA community, maybe you could look at the year when it surpassed, say, 20 people in the survey. That data should be easier to find, and could also help address the issue of early false starts.
BTW I happened to see this comment which gives some interesting thoughts regarding why attrition in LMICs with small EA communities could be high. So my overall hypothesis at this point would be something like: the more EAs in your city, and the more EA funding that is available, the easier and more fun it gets to find out about EA and participate. If the circumstances are right, you can get exponential growth.
Thanks, good idea to make this graph, and indeed that is quite a high R^2! I wonder if a log-log version of this graph would be more informative, particularly for the y-axis?
Nice, yes quite a clear trend. Re David Moss’s comment, it will be interesting to see what the fuller data shows, including countries with <25 EA survey respondents.
GDP per capita predicts most of the variance in EAs per million population. Estonia is a clear outlier, R^2 is higher with it excluded.
<Sarcasm>
New cause area: increase global GDP by multiple trillion to increase EA recruitment
</Sarcasm>
Here is the original chart adjusted for GDP/c. Estonia, New Zealand, Israel, and UK have more EAs than expected, the US has less. What might predict this difference?
How about the ratio of community age (or exp(community age)) to national population? See this comment
Instead of trying to identify a founding date for every country’s EA community, maybe you could look at the year when it surpassed, say, 20 people in the survey. That data should be easier to find, and could also help address the issue of early false starts.
BTW I happened to see this comment which gives some interesting thoughts regarding why attrition in LMICs with small EA communities could be high. So my overall hypothesis at this point would be something like: the more EAs in your city, and the more EA funding that is available, the easier and more fun it gets to find out about EA and participate. If the circumstances are right, you can get exponential growth.
Thanks, good idea to make this graph, and indeed that is quite a high R^2! I wonder if a log-log version of this graph would be more informative, particularly for the y-axis?
Here is a log-log version, with trendline equations.
Link to doc https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VETGm-EjAvQCsGToQCnYwqFzwVfU2TNEyjOtAriMbpc/edit?usp=sharing
Nice, yes quite a clear trend. Re David Moss’s comment, it will be interesting to see what the fuller data shows, including countries with <25 EA survey respondents.