Thanks for sharing this! I’ve also been working on this question of “what would better forecasting by AIs enable?” (or stated differently, “what advances could instantaneous superforecasting ‘too cheap to meter’ unlock?”) I’ve come at this from a bit of a different angle of thinking about how forecasting systems could fit into a predictive process for science and government that imitates active inference in brains. Here’re slides from a presentation I gave on this topic at Manifest, and here is a half-finished draft essay I’m working on in case you’re interested.
Thanks for sharing this! I’ve also been working on this question of “what would better forecasting by AIs enable?” (or stated differently, “what advances could instantaneous superforecasting ‘too cheap to meter’ unlock?”) I’ve come at this from a bit of a different angle of thinking about how forecasting systems could fit into a predictive process for science and government that imitates active inference in brains. Here’re slides from a presentation I gave on this topic at Manifest, and here is a half-finished draft essay I’m working on in case you’re interested.