Thank you for pointing this out, David. The situation here is asymmetric. Consider the analogy of chess. If computers can’t play chess competently, that is strong evidence against imminent AGI. If computers can play chess competently — as IBM’s Deep Blue could in 1996 — is not strong evidence for imminent AGI. It’s about 30 years later and we still don’t have anything close to AGI.
AI investment is similar. The market isn’t pricing in AGI. I’ve looked at every analyst report I can find, and whatever other information I can get my hands on about how AI is being valued. The optimists are expecting AI to be a fairly normal, prosaic extension of computers and the Internet, enabling office workers to manipulate spreadsheets more efficiently, making it easier for consumers to shop online, social media platforms having chatbots that are somehow popular and profitable, LLMs playing some role in education, and chatbots doing customer support — which seems like one of the two areas, along with coding, where generative AI has some practical usefulness and financial value, although this is a fairly incremental step up from the pre-LLM chatbots and decision trees that were already widely used in customer support.
I haven’t seen AGI mentioned as a serious consideration in any of the stuff I’ve seen from the financial world.
Thank you for pointing this out, David. The situation here is asymmetric. Consider the analogy of chess. If computers can’t play chess competently, that is strong evidence against imminent AGI. If computers can play chess competently — as IBM’s Deep Blue could in 1996 — is not strong evidence for imminent AGI. It’s about 30 years later and we still don’t have anything close to AGI.
AI investment is similar. The market isn’t pricing in AGI. I’ve looked at every analyst report I can find, and whatever other information I can get my hands on about how AI is being valued. The optimists are expecting AI to be a fairly normal, prosaic extension of computers and the Internet, enabling office workers to manipulate spreadsheets more efficiently, making it easier for consumers to shop online, social media platforms having chatbots that are somehow popular and profitable, LLMs playing some role in education, and chatbots doing customer support — which seems like one of the two areas, along with coding, where generative AI has some practical usefulness and financial value, although this is a fairly incremental step up from the pre-LLM chatbots and decision trees that were already widely used in customer support.
I haven’t seen AGI mentioned as a serious consideration in any of the stuff I’ve seen from the financial world.