Also, if I were on the low probability end of a bet, I’d be more worried about the risk of measurement or adjudicator error where measuring the outcome isn’t entirely clear cut. Maybe a ruleset could be devised that is so objective and so well captures whether AGI exists that this concern isn’t applicable. But if there’s an adjudication/error error risk of (say) 2 percent and the error is equally likely on either side, it’s much more salient to someone betting on (say) under 1 percent odds.
Also, if I were on the low probability end of a bet, I’d be more worried about the risk of measurement or adjudicator error where measuring the outcome isn’t entirely clear cut. Maybe a ruleset could be devised that is so objective and so well captures whether AGI exists that this concern isn’t applicable. But if there’s an adjudication/error error risk of (say) 2 percent and the error is equally likely on either side, it’s much more salient to someone betting on (say) under 1 percent odds.