The ‘lessons learned’ listed in this forum post seem obvious. I googled “tips for running for congress” and in 10 minutes read through several resources that gave most of these same lessons learned. I expect a 30 min call with a Democrat strategist, of which there are several in the EA movement, would have also given the same lessons learned, and probably would have given a more accurate prediction on the election outcome than the prediction markets cited in this post.
People who worked on the campaign can speak to this better than I can, but I would give them more credit for doing reasonable due diligence. I have a strong expectation that:
There were lots of Democratic strategists involved
There were lots of attempts at polling / predicting the race
I also think there can be a meaningful difference between knowing on paper that “having connections in the district is important” and “spending money can help you win” and “having a voting record is helpful”, and seeing how those factors actually play out in practice. That said, I hope (and expect) that there was more “know-how” generated by the race than just the lessons reflected in this post.
People who worked on the campaign can speak to this better than I can, but I would give them more credit for doing reasonable due diligence. I have a strong expectation that:
There were lots of Democratic strategists involved
There were lots of attempts at polling / predicting the race
I also think there can be a meaningful difference between knowing on paper that “having connections in the district is important” and “spending money can help you win” and “having a voting record is helpful”, and seeing how those factors actually play out in practice. That said, I hope (and expect) that there was more “know-how” generated by the race than just the lessons reflected in this post.