These posts provide some interesting points:
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
AI Timelines via Cumulative Optimization Power: Less Long, More Short
Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds—draft report
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
“AGI Timelines” section of PAIS #2
I’d like to see more posts like these (including counterarguments or reviews (example 1, example 2)), since timelines are highly relevant to career plans.
I have a hypothesis that some people are updating towards shorter timelines because they didn’t pay much attention to AI capabilities until seeing some of 2022′s impressive (public) results. Indeed, 2022 included results like LaMDA, InstructGPT, chain-of-thought prompting, GopherCite, Socratic Models, PaLM, PaLM-SayCan, DALL-E 2, Flamingo, Gato, AI-assisted circuit design, solving International Math Olympiad problems, Copilot finishing its preview period, Parti, VPT, Minerva, DeepNash, Midjourney entering open beta, AlphaFold Protein Structure Database expanding from nearly 1 million to over 200 million structures, Stable Diffusion, AudioLM, ACT-1, Whisper, Make-A-Video, Imagen Video, AlphaTensor, CICERO, ChatGPT, RT-1, answering medical questions, and more.
These posts provide some interesting points:
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute
AI Timelines via Cumulative Optimization Power: Less Long, More Short
Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
What a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds—draft report
Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines
“AGI Timelines” section of PAIS #2
I’d like to see more posts like these (including counterarguments or reviews (example 1, example 2)), since timelines are highly relevant to career plans.
I have a hypothesis that some people are updating towards shorter timelines because they didn’t pay much attention to AI capabilities until seeing some of 2022′s impressive (public) results. Indeed, 2022 included results like LaMDA, InstructGPT, chain-of-thought prompting, GopherCite, Socratic Models, PaLM, PaLM-SayCan, DALL-E 2, Flamingo, Gato, AI-assisted circuit design, solving International Math Olympiad problems, Copilot finishing its preview period, Parti, VPT, Minerva, DeepNash, Midjourney entering open beta, AlphaFold Protein Structure Database expanding from nearly 1 million to over 200 million structures, Stable Diffusion, AudioLM, ACT-1, Whisper, Make-A-Video, Imagen Video, AlphaTensor, CICERO, ChatGPT, RT-1, answering medical questions, and more.