Aiming to spend down in less than 20 years would not obviously be justified even if one’s median for transformative AI timelines were well under 20 years. This is because we may want extra capital in a “crunch time” where we’re close enough to transformative AI for the strategic picture to have become a lot clearer, and because even a 10-25% chance of longer timelines would provide some justification for not spending down on short time frames.
This move could be justified if the existing giving opportunities were strong enough even with a lower bar. That may end up being the case in the future. But we don’t feel it’s the case today, having eyeballed the stack rank.
I agree. This lines with models of optimal spending I worked on which allowed for a post-fire alarm “crunch time” in which one can spend a significant fraction of remaining capital.
Aiming to spend down in less than 20 years would not obviously be justified even if one’s median for transformative AI timelines were well under 20 years. This is because we may want extra capital in a “crunch time” where we’re close enough to transformative AI for the strategic picture to have become a lot clearer, and because even a 10-25% chance of longer timelines would provide some justification for not spending down on short time frames.
This move could be justified if the existing giving opportunities were strong enough even with a lower bar. That may end up being the case in the future. But we don’t feel it’s the case today, having eyeballed the stack rank.
I agree. This lines with models of optimal spending I worked on which allowed for a post-fire alarm “crunch time” in which one can spend a significant fraction of remaining capital.