Huh, I guess I didn’t realize how much weight some people put on the evolution anchor. I thought everyone was (like me) treating it as a loose upper bound basically, not something to actually clump lots of probability mass on.
In other words: The people I know who were using the evolutionary anchor (people like myself, Ajeya, etc.) weren’t using it in a way that would be significantly undermined by having to push the anchor up 6 OOMs or so. Like I said, it would be a minor change to the bottom line according to the spreadsheet. Insofar as people were arguing for AGI this century in a way which can be undermined by adding 6 OOMs to the evolutionary anchor then those people are silly & should stop, for multiple reasons, one of which is that maaaybe environmental simulation costs mean that the evolution anchor really is 6 OOMs bigger than Ajeya estimates.
Huh, I guess I didn’t realize how much weight some people put on the evolution anchor. I thought everyone was (like me) treating it as a loose upper bound basically, not something to actually clump lots of probability mass on.
In other words: The people I know who were using the evolutionary anchor (people like myself, Ajeya, etc.) weren’t using it in a way that would be significantly undermined by having to push the anchor up 6 OOMs or so. Like I said, it would be a minor change to the bottom line according to the spreadsheet. Insofar as people were arguing for AGI this century in a way which can be undermined by adding 6 OOMs to the evolutionary anchor then those people are silly & should stop, for multiple reasons, one of which is that maaaybe environmental simulation costs mean that the evolution anchor really is 6 OOMs bigger than Ajeya estimates.