Conditional on AGI happening under this administration, how much AGI companies have embedded with the national security state is a crux for the future of the lightcone, and I don’t expect institutional inertia (the reasons why one would expect “the US might recover relatively quickly from its current disaster” and “the US to remain somewhat less dictatorial than China even in the worst outcomes”) to hold if AGI dictatorship is a possibility for the powers that be to reach for.
It increases the AI arms race thus shortening AGI timelines, and, after AGI, increases chances of the singleton being either unaligned or technically aligned to being an AGI dictatorship or other kind of dystopian outcome.
Conditional on AGI happening under this administration, how much AGI companies have embedded with the national security state is a crux for the future of the lightcone, and I don’t expect institutional inertia (the reasons why one would expect “the US might recover relatively quickly from its current disaster” and “the US to remain somewhat less dictatorial than China even in the worst outcomes”) to hold if AGI dictatorship is a possibility for the powers that be to reach for.
“how much AGI companies have embedded with the national security state is a crux for the future of the lightcone”
What’s the line of thought here?
It increases the AI arms race thus shortening AGI timelines, and, after AGI, increases chances of the singleton being either unaligned or technically aligned to being an AGI dictatorship or other kind of dystopian outcome.