Am I right that Carlsmith (2021) is the only end-to-end model of AI Risk with numerical predictions at each stage (by end-to-end I mean there are steps in between ‘AI invented’ and ‘AI catastrophe’ which are individually predicted)? Any other examples would be really helpful so I can scope out the community consensus on the microdynamics of AI risk.
This spreadsheet (found here) has estimates on the propositions in Carlsmith by (some of?) the reviewers of that paper.
This spreadsheet (found here) has estimates on the propositions in Carlsmith by (some of?) the reviewers of that paper.
This is absolutely incredible—can’t believe I missed it! Thank you so much
I’m excited to see what you come up with!