Another comment : regarding the value of longtermist intervention, while I understand numbers can be very high, my main uncertainty is that I’m not even sure a lot of common interventions have a positive impact.
For instance, is working against X-risks good when avoiding an S-risks would allow factory farming to continue? The answer will depend on many questions (will factory farming continue in the future, what is the impact of humanity on wild animals, what will happen regarding artificial sentience, etc.), none of which have a clear answer.
Another comment : regarding the value of longtermist intervention, while I understand numbers can be very high, my main uncertainty is that I’m not even sure a lot of common interventions have a positive impact.
For instance, is working against X-risks good when avoiding an S-risks would allow factory farming to continue? The answer will depend on many questions (will factory farming continue in the future, what is the impact of humanity on wild animals, what will happen regarding artificial sentience, etc.), none of which have a clear answer.
Reducing S-risks seems good, though.