Regarding section 1, is there a reliable way to determine who these market-beating superforecasters are? What about in new domains? Do we have to have a long series of forecasts in any new domain before we can pick out the superforecasters?
Somewhat relatedly, what guarantees do we have that the superforecasters aren’t just getting lucky? Surely, some portion of them would revert to the mean if we continued to follow their forecasts.
Altogether, this seems somewhat analogous to the arguments around active vs passive investing where I think passive investing comes out on top.
Regarding section 1, is there a reliable way to determine who these market-beating superforecasters are? What about in new domains? Do we have to have a long series of forecasts in any new domain before we can pick out the superforecasters?
Somewhat relatedly, what guarantees do we have that the superforecasters aren’t just getting lucky? Surely, some portion of them would revert to the mean if we continued to follow their forecasts.
Altogether, this seems somewhat analogous to the arguments around active vs passive investing where I think passive investing comes out on top.