I’m arguing that the limit is hard to reach and when it isn’t being reached, prediction markets are usually worse than alternatives. I’d be excited about a prediction market like Scott is describing in his post, but we are quite far away from implementing anything like that.
I also find it ironic that Scott’s example discusses how hard election prediction markets are to corrupt, which is precisely what happened in the Intrade example above.
I’m arguing that the limit is hard to reach and when it isn’t being reached, prediction markets are usually worse than alternatives. I’d be excited about a prediction market like Scott is describing in his post, but we are quite far away from implementing anything like that.
I also find it ironic that Scott’s example discusses how hard election prediction markets are to corrupt, which is precisely what happened in the Intrade example above.