Jagged progress is conceivable, but it’s virtually impossible that AI could replace all coders and accelerate math research but not replace other jobs, because coding and math research (specifically ML-type math) are exactly the skills needed to accelerate AI development. If AI can accelerate AI development, then the timeline to getting an AI that can replace humans on all tasks becomes much shorter.
This is true if we assume that AI development has no cap. What if we find out that human intelligence is beyond AI? Maybe acceleration just leads to us hitting the “ceiling” sooner. (Again, not making a probability judgment here, just pointing out that this is a plausible outcome.)
Jagged progress is conceivable, but it’s virtually impossible that AI could replace all coders and accelerate math research but not replace other jobs, because coding and math research (specifically ML-type math) are exactly the skills needed to accelerate AI development. If AI can accelerate AI development, then the timeline to getting an AI that can replace humans on all tasks becomes much shorter.
This is true if we assume that AI development has no cap. What if we find out that human intelligence is beyond AI? Maybe acceleration just leads to us hitting the “ceiling” sooner. (Again, not making a probability judgment here, just pointing out that this is a plausible outcome.)