I agree that the optimal percentage of research funding is higher/lower for areas where less/more science and R&D have been done so far. We don’t really know yet how different areas correspond to which of the simulated scenarios. I think establishing this correspondence will be a crucial next step in our project. Moreover, some topics and potential interventions within a broad cause area, such as global health and development, might have been researched much less than others. Therefore, it probably makes most sense to apply our analysis at the level of specific research topics or interventions.
Thank you for pointing out that the amount of available resources can change. Contrary to your intuition, I suspect that taking this into account would tilt the analysis in favor of even more research if the amount of funding an area receives depends on the cost-effectiveness and scalability of its best intervention. Successful research results in new interventions that are more cost-effective or more scalable than the best previous ones. This can significantly increase how much the cause area appeals to the EA community and how much finding it can absorb. Suppose, research in a cause area without any highly cost-effective interventions leads to the development of an intervention that is more cost-effective than the best interventions in any other area. That would probably increase the amount of money that will be donated to the cause. Or suppose that the research makes a highly effective intervention much more scalable. That would likely increase the amount of money that will be donated to the corresponding cause as well.
Thank you, Vasco!
I agree that the optimal percentage of research funding is higher/lower for areas where less/more science and R&D have been done so far. We don’t really know yet how different areas correspond to which of the simulated scenarios. I think establishing this correspondence will be a crucial next step in our project. Moreover, some topics and potential interventions within a broad cause area, such as global health and development, might have been researched much less than others. Therefore, it probably makes most sense to apply our analysis at the level of specific research topics or interventions.
Thank you for pointing out that the amount of available resources can change. Contrary to your intuition, I suspect that taking this into account would tilt the analysis in favor of even more research if the amount of funding an area receives depends on the cost-effectiveness and scalability of its best intervention. Successful research results in new interventions that are more cost-effective or more scalable than the best previous ones. This can significantly increase how much the cause area appeals to the EA community and how much finding it can absorb. Suppose, research in a cause area without any highly cost-effective interventions leads to the development of an intervention that is more cost-effective than the best interventions in any other area. That would probably increase the amount of money that will be donated to the cause. Or suppose that the research makes a highly effective intervention much more scalable. That would likely increase the amount of money that will be donated to the corresponding cause as well.
That makes sense to me, thanks for clarifying!