Executive summary: Jacob Steinhardt’s forecasting course teaches skills for making accurate predictions in real-world settings with limited data, relying on intuition informed by data and trained over time.
Key points:
Forecasting process: form a worldview, generate considerations, combine into calibrated probability distribution
Course structure: weekly forecasting assignments, skill-building exercises, peer discussions, and public leaderboard competition
Emphasis on deliberate practice and approaching forecasting as a skilled activity rather than just learning facts
Novel course offering students opportunity to systematically train forecasting skills over extended period
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Jacob Steinhardt’s forecasting course teaches skills for making accurate predictions in real-world settings with limited data, relying on intuition informed by data and trained over time.
Key points:
Forecasting process: form a worldview, generate considerations, combine into calibrated probability distribution
Key skills: calibration training, generating considerations, combating cognitive biases, evaluating information sources
Course structure: weekly forecasting assignments, skill-building exercises, peer discussions, and public leaderboard competition
Emphasis on deliberate practice and approaching forecasting as a skilled activity rather than just learning facts
Novel course offering students opportunity to systematically train forecasting skills over extended period
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.