Joris Van Houtven comments on Founders Pledge’s Climate Change Fund might be more cost-effective than GiveWell’s top charities, but it is much less cost-effective than corporate campaigns for chicken welfare?

[Joris Van Houtven]

I admire and encourage your mathematical diligence.

What I’m worried about is the error bars—multiplying errors can cause wild differences between the estimated and actual numbers. If the error bars of the two funds (CCF and TCF) overlap significantly, it might be too soon to judge which one is best.

[Vasco Grilo🔸]

Thanks, Joris, and welcome to the EA Forum!

What I’m worried about is the error bars—multiplying errors can cause wild differences between the estimated and actual numbers. If the error bars of the two funds (CCF and TCF) overlap significantly, it might be too soon to judge which one is best.

Agreed:

• I estimated the cost-effectiveness of CCF is:

  • 3.28 times that of TCF, with a plausible range of 0.175 to 30.2 times. So it is unclear to me whether donors interested in improving nearterm human welfare had better donate to GiveWell’s funds or CCF.