Marcus and I did a lot of back and forth on potential criteria. I started by suggesting metrics that capture a decline in investments into AI companies. Marcus though was reasonably trying to avoid things that can be interest rate/tariff/broad market driven.
So the criteria we have here are a result of compromise.
The revenue criteria are rather indirect for capturing my view on things. I think if OpenAI and Anthropic each continue to make $5+ billion yearly losses (along with losses by other model developers) that would result in investors declining to invest, which in turn would lead to reduction in investments into AI data centers (and a corresponding reduction of Nvidia’s revenues). I also think that OpenAI and Anthropic are facing competition with cheaper/free models that for users often function ‘good enough’, and that particularly during a larger US recession, people will be motivated to cancel their ‘luxury’ subscriptions. Though people can get locked into using personalised chatbots.
I did ask for high betting odds, so there’s a trade-off here!
Good question.
Marcus and I did a lot of back and forth on potential criteria. I started by suggesting metrics that capture a decline in investments into AI companies. Marcus though was reasonably trying to avoid things that can be interest rate/tariff/broad market driven.
So the criteria we have here are a result of compromise.
The revenue criteria are rather indirect for capturing my view on things. I think if OpenAI and Anthropic each continue to make $5+ billion yearly losses (along with losses by other model developers) that would result in investors declining to invest, which in turn would lead to reduction in investments into AI data centers (and a corresponding reduction of Nvidia’s revenues). I also think that OpenAI and Anthropic are facing competition with cheaper/free models that for users often function ‘good enough’, and that particularly during a larger US recession, people will be motivated to cancel their ‘luxury’ subscriptions. Though people can get locked into using personalised chatbots.
I did ask for high betting odds, so there’s a trade-off here!