Are there any major longtermist risks to global development?
Could global development increase the risks of catastrophic conflicts (nuclear war, engineered pathogens, s-risks) by increasing the number of major powers (or major coalitions) with conflicting goals?
I think it depends on the countries that gain power. If South Africa or the EU becomes a great power I’d be less worried because they have liberal values. But the most likely candidates for great powers are China and India, and China is an outright dictatorship while India is slipping into one.
Are there any major longtermist risks to global development?
Could global development increase the risks of catastrophic conflicts (nuclear war, engineered pathogens, s-risks) by increasing the number of major powers (or major coalitions) with conflicting goals?
I think it depends on the countries that gain power. If South Africa or the EU becomes a great power I’d be less worried because they have liberal values. But the most likely candidates for great powers are China and India, and China is an outright dictatorship while India is slipping into one.