I do think more EA work on this topic would be useful for someone to do, since I don’t think it’s clear from a near-termist perspective that global health is more effective than climate change.
On guesstimate, there was an error and I was unable to save my model. If someone is looking to reproduce this though, I’d suggest they just make their own.
On the value of money to Americans vs. GiveDirectly recipients, my personal estimate was a lower ratio, because I think we should take into account some flow through effects and I think this causes convergence. I don’t think values like 10,000x are plausible for the all-considered tradeoff (even though the ratio could be 10,000x if we’re just considering the welfare of two individuals).
More here:
http://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.com/2014/01/what-portion-of-boost-to-global-gdp.html
I was probably being unclear but my analysis was not supposed to be a confidence intervals but rather my the best guess and extreme scenarios.
I’m still a bit unclear how useful these are due to Rob’s point.
Hey Hauke,
That makes sense.
I do think more EA work on this topic would be useful for someone to do, since I don’t think it’s clear from a near-termist perspective that global health is more effective than climate change.
On guesstimate, there was an error and I was unable to save my model. If someone is looking to reproduce this though, I’d suggest they just make their own.
On the value of money to Americans vs. GiveDirectly recipients, my personal estimate was a lower ratio, because I think we should take into account some flow through effects and I think this causes convergence. I don’t think values like 10,000x are plausible for the all-considered tradeoff (even though the ratio could be 10,000x if we’re just considering the welfare of two individuals). More here: http://reflectivedisequilibrium.blogspot.com/2014/01/what-portion-of-boost-to-global-gdp.html
I’m still a bit unclear how useful these are due to Rob’s point.