Executive summary: The characteristics of Space-Faring Civilization (SFC) Shapers are likely constrained by evolutionary dynamics, almost winner-takes-all races, and universal selection pressures, which may imply that different SFCs across civilizations will have similar values and capabilities. If true, this could challenge the prioritization of extinction risk reduction in longtermist strategy, as the expected utility of alien SFCs may not be significantly different from humanity’s SFC.
Key points:
SFC Shapers as constrained agents – The values and capabilities of SFC Shapers (key influencers of an SFC) may be significantly constrained by evolutionary selection, competition, and universal pressures, challenging the assumption of wide moral variation among civilizations.
Sequence of almost winner-takes-all races – The formation of an SFC is shaped by a sequence of competitive filters, including biochemistry, planetary environment, species dominance, political systems, economic structures, and AI influence, each narrowing the characteristics of SFC Shapers.
Convergent evolution and economic pressures – Both genetic and cultural evolution, along with economic and game-theoretic constraints, may lead to similar cognitive abilities, moral frameworks, and societal structures among different civilizations’ SFC Shapers.
Implications for the Civ-Similarity Hypothesis – If SFC Shapers across civilizations are similar, the expected utility of humanity’s SFC may not be significantly different from those of other civilizations, reducing the relative value of extinction risk reduction.
Uncertainty as a key factor – Given the difficulty of predicting the long-term value output of civilizations, longtermists should default to the Mediocrity Principle unless strong evidence suggests humanity’s SFC is highly exceptional.
Filtering through existential risks – Various bottlenecks, such as intelligence erosion, economic collapse, and self-destruction risks, may further shape the space of possible SFC Shapers, reinforcing selection pressures that favor robust and similar civilizations.
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Executive summary: The characteristics of Space-Faring Civilization (SFC) Shapers are likely constrained by evolutionary dynamics, almost winner-takes-all races, and universal selection pressures, which may imply that different SFCs across civilizations will have similar values and capabilities. If true, this could challenge the prioritization of extinction risk reduction in longtermist strategy, as the expected utility of alien SFCs may not be significantly different from humanity’s SFC.
Key points:
SFC Shapers as constrained agents – The values and capabilities of SFC Shapers (key influencers of an SFC) may be significantly constrained by evolutionary selection, competition, and universal pressures, challenging the assumption of wide moral variation among civilizations.
Sequence of almost winner-takes-all races – The formation of an SFC is shaped by a sequence of competitive filters, including biochemistry, planetary environment, species dominance, political systems, economic structures, and AI influence, each narrowing the characteristics of SFC Shapers.
Convergent evolution and economic pressures – Both genetic and cultural evolution, along with economic and game-theoretic constraints, may lead to similar cognitive abilities, moral frameworks, and societal structures among different civilizations’ SFC Shapers.
Implications for the Civ-Similarity Hypothesis – If SFC Shapers across civilizations are similar, the expected utility of humanity’s SFC may not be significantly different from those of other civilizations, reducing the relative value of extinction risk reduction.
Uncertainty as a key factor – Given the difficulty of predicting the long-term value output of civilizations, longtermists should default to the Mediocrity Principle unless strong evidence suggests humanity’s SFC is highly exceptional.
Filtering through existential risks – Various bottlenecks, such as intelligence erosion, economic collapse, and self-destruction risks, may further shape the space of possible SFC Shapers, reinforcing selection pressures that favor robust and similar civilizations.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.