I think EA hasnāt sufficiently explored the use of different types of empirical studies from which we can rigorously estimate causal effects, other than randomized controlled trials (or other experiments). This leaves us either relying heavily on subjective estimates of the magnitudes of causal effects based on weak evidence, anecdotes, expert opinion or basically guesses, or being skeptical of interventions whose cost-effectiveness estimates donāt come from RCTs. Iād say Iām pretty skeptical, but not so skeptical that I think we need RCTs to conclude anything about the magnitudes of causal effects. There are methods to do causal inference from observational data.
2. Relying too much on guesses and poor studies in the effective animal advocacy space (especially in the past), for example overestimating the value of leafletting. I think things have improved a lot since then, and I thought the evidence presented in the work of Rethink Priorities, Charity Entrepreneurship and Founders Pledge on corporate campaigns was good enough to meet the bar for me to donate to support corporate campaigns specifically. Humane League Labs and some academics have done and are doing research to estimate causal effects from observational data that can inform EAA.
I think EA hasnāt sufficiently explored the use of different types of empirical studies from which we can rigorously estimate causal effects, other than randomized controlled trials (or other experiments). This leaves us either relying heavily on subjective estimates of the magnitudes of causal effects based on weak evidence, anecdotes, expert opinion or basically guesses, or being skeptical of interventions whose cost-effectiveness estimates donāt come from RCTs. Iād say Iām pretty skeptical, but not so skeptical that I think we need RCTs to conclude anything about the magnitudes of causal effects. There are methods to do causal inference from observational data.
I think this has lead us to:
1. Underexploring the global health and development space. See John Halsteadās and Hauke Hillebrandtās āGrowth and the case against randomista developmentā. I think GiveWell is starting to look beyond RCTs. Thereās probably already a lot of research out there they can look to.
2. Relying too much on guesses and poor studies in the effective animal advocacy space (especially in the past), for example overestimating the value of leafletting. I think things have improved a lot since then, and I thought the evidence presented in the work of Rethink Priorities, Charity Entrepreneurship and Founders Pledge on corporate campaigns was good enough to meet the bar for me to donate to support corporate campaigns specifically. Humane League Labs and some academics have done and are doing research to estimate causal effects from observational data that can inform EAA.