The largest single category of entrant to the UK is a person on a work visa; in the most recent year of data available, about 450,000 work visas were issued.[3] This is closely followed by the number of people on study visas, at 415,000. Most of the study visas are for masters level courses, rather than undergraduate courses.
Despite the near endless press coverage on asylum seekers, the number of refugee/humanitarian visas granted is small by comparison.[4] Most people who move to the UK come to work or to study.[5]
I believe you are downplaying the dependant visa. Of the 450,000[1] work visas issued, 212,000 were main applicants and 255,000 were dependants.
(Using this source, removing the columns for 2018 and 2019)
Indeed combining Main Applicant vs Dependant for all visa categories, shows a marked rise in the proportion of dependants from 2020-2023:
You wrote 450,000 work visas were issued in the most recent year of data available, but I got that sum looking at 2023 (and 2024 is far lower), it’s possible they have updated the website since you checked it to include 2024 numbers.
That being said, I am relatively unconcerned about the fiscal effects of this given 1) dependents are allowed to work in the UK (unlike in the US), 2) cohort wages look decent through 2023, and 3) labor force participation for non-UK born remains higher than for the UK born (through 2025).
I believe you are downplaying the dependant visa. Of the 450,000[1] work visas issued, 212,000 were main applicants and 255,000 were dependants.
(Using this source, removing the columns for 2018 and 2019)
Indeed combining Main Applicant vs Dependant for all visa categories, shows a marked rise in the proportion of dependants from 2020-2023:
You wrote 450,000 work visas were issued in the most recent year of data available, but I got that sum looking at 2023 (and 2024 is far lower), it’s possible they have updated the website since you checked it to include 2024 numbers.
Update: I have edited, and added a footnote saying you corrected me, linking to this comment, and noting that I offered you a bug bounty.
You’re correct that I accidentally used the 2023 work visa total instead of 2024 work visa total.
I’ll edit. As per my bug bounty policy, I’ll also donate $10 to a charity of your choice: https://www.laurenpolicy.com/p/announcing-a-bug-bounty-for-this
That being said, I am relatively unconcerned about the fiscal effects of this given 1) dependents are allowed to work in the UK (unlike in the US), 2) cohort wages look decent through 2023, and 3) labor force participation for non-UK born remains higher than for the UK born (through 2025).